THE ROLE OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN THE STOCK MARKET IN IRAN - Polish Journal of Management Studies

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THE ROLE OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN THE STOCK MARKET IN IRAN

Abstracts > Vol 10.2

THE ROLE OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN THE STOCK MARKET IN IRAN
Khodaparasti R.B.


Abstract:
Capital and capital markets are important role in any economy. Therefore in this study the role and impact of macro variables in the Iranian stock market is given in. Since the stock market in any country is one of the most important indicators that highlight the economic situation, as important variables in this market analysis is required. In Iran several years ago by the approval and implementation of principle 44 of the constitution of the country's stock market has altered the essential and most state-owned companies were sold. Thus the results of this work can be used for the principle of privatization. Macroeconomic variables used in this work are: inflation, exchange, volume of liquidity in the private sector and index of industrial production. By analyze of variance method, this experimental study actually examines the oscillation in the stock market as oscillations that exist in these four variables between 2007- 2011. Outcome of this analysis shows that the exchange rate and industrial index have more effect on the stock market than inflation and M1.
Key words: exchange rate, financial market, industrial index, inflation, stock market

Introduction
As we know, the term refers to the stock market where shares of firms, types of goods, metals, currencies and also bonds will be supply and exchanged. Stock market growth with economic development, agricultural development and industrialization of countries is involved. In addition, laws and regulations, supervises the activities of the safety stock investment in the stock market increased, and this also increases people's participation in the creation of new industries have been established. The first stock market was founded by multinational company East India in Holland, Amsterdam City. So the company doing the exercise was the first company which he sold stock. The major stock markets around the world call: Wall Street in New York City that was founded in 1792, that the world's largest stock market in terms of value and volume of financial transactions is, stock market in England, London City which was founded in 1801, the stock market in Japan, Tokyo City founded in 1878 and so on. Starting stock market activity in Iran is 1937. This year, a Belgian engineer named Ron Luther Feld with a Dutch expert on the request of the Iranian government, conducted a study on establishing a stock exchange. But in fact the stock market activity began in 1967.
Stock market through savings rate, the rate of change and improve the quality of capital investment affects the economy. The macroeconomic perspective on the topic of saving rates, savings due to changes in overall volume; otherwise simply because the stock market development could be substitution of securities rather than bank deposits, and while the overall level of savings has remained unchanged.
It cannot be said that such a replacement is completely without effect on economic development. Because the stock market to banks more efficient allocation of resources and is more dynamic. From microeconomic perspective, the stock through influencing how the corporate finance and corporate management quality are considered.
Assessment of macro and micro economic opinions the stock market in Iran shows that, although this market is that the new institutional economics in Iran and its impact on the economy is about 5%, and still has not been in his real position. But this market situation at least shows economic entities. The main purpose of the stock market in Iran are economic agents transpires performance, targeting savings to productive investments, and so preparation resources. In any case the stock market and capital market creates is positive and constructive role in Iran's economy.
Increasing importance of stock market in Iran is not only the relative efficiency reasons but there are other reasons such as government attention stock market as
a tool to simplify privatization of state-owned companies, have significant effects on growth and stock market development and so on. From this point of view many economists believe that stock market is an essential instrument for change in the state of Iran. This transformation of state-owned company to private company by stock market can create the necessary resources and lead to structural modification of these companies up to date. Such dependence on the resources of this institution loans decreases and therefore increases the effectiveness managers of these companies. Another important role of stock market in Iran's economy is decreasing negative effects of fiscal policy in currency and credit markets. Otherwise, other economists argue that economic development of country with the credit system reform is more successful. In view of the economic mechanism as intermediate to these two mechanisms are complementary and not substitutes introduced which can overcome some of the economic needs of the country's development path.
So the stock market by attracting stagnant volume of capital increases volume of capital in the community, and interact relation between suppliers and users of capital, and regulate the capital market transactions. Therefore, the prices of shares and securities may be somewhat to reduce price volatility.
Given the stock market above objectives are: increasing incentives for savings and investment at the macroeconomic level, attracting foreign investment, reducing the release of government policies and less important tasks to perform important tasks, economic growth, expand market penetration, market development and economic units of capital, technical and professional prosperity, increase domestic production by accelerating privatization and so on.
All studies done split the effect of macroeconomic variables on stock markets abroad and in Iran highlights the fact that the stock market is important for each country. In addition understanding of how the stock market is influenced and knowledge relationship between these variables with the stock market can have many benefits for any economy. The importance of this problem lies in knowing the exact macro variables affecting the capital market and taking into account the nature of this relationship, then academics and professionals can understand and anticipate the reaction of stock market much easier.

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Conclusion

Shareholders accept the investment risk and expected stock returns are looking to maximize their benefits. Therefore identifying the key indicators for the level of expected return on stocks is one of the important issues in modern financial science. Historical time series data to predict future stock returns can also be an important measure for the level of future stock returns. But a more appropriate solution is a large collection of financial factors and dimensions that fully respects the financial condition of organization to cover. Because of their financial assets in the basket of various combinations of cash, shares, bank deposits, bonds, currencies, gold and maintain, therefore changes in the volume of money, exchange rates, inflation and interest rates, demand for those assets held in each of those affects. And this in turn has impact on equities. It is believed that stock prices by some of the fundamental macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rates, interest rates and liquidity, are determined. As results of this paper currency and industrial index have more effect on the stock market than inflation and M1. Thus it is recommended that politicians during the conduct of monetary and fiscal policies at the macro level analyze the effects of these policies on the stock market and other financial markets.

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ROLA ZMIENNYCH MAKROEKONOMICZNYCH NA RYNKU GIEŁDOWYM W IRANIE

Streszczenie: Kapitał i rynki kapitałowe pełnią ważną rolę w każdej gospodarce. Dlatego też w niniejszym badaniu przedstawiona jest rola i wpływ zmiennych makroekonomicznych w irańskim rynku akcji. Ponieważ rynek akcji w każdym kraju jest jednym z najważniejszych wskaźników, które podkreślają sytuację gospodarczą, jako istotne zmienne w tym rynku, analiza jest wymagana. W Iranie kilka lat temu, przez zatwierdzenie i wdrożenie zasady 44 konstytucji kraju, rynek akcji kraju zmienił się istotne i większość przedsiębiorstw państwowych zostało sprzedanych. Tak więc, wyniki tej pracy mogą być wykorzystane do zasady prywatyzacji. Zmienne makroekonomiczne wykorzystane w niniejszej pracy to: inflacja, wymiany, wielkość płynności w sektorze prywatnym, a wskaźnik produkcji przemysłowej. Przez analizę metody wariancji, to eksperymentalne badanie rzeczywiście rozpatruje oscylację na rynku giełdowym jako oscylacje, które występują w tych czterech zmiennych między lata 2007 2011. Wynik tej analizy wskazuje, że kurs walutowy i wskaźnik przemysłowy mają większy wpływ na rynek giełdowy niż inflacja.



Słowa kluczowe: kurs wymiany, rynek finansowy, wskaźnik przemysłowy, inflacja i rynek giełdowy

宏观经济变量对股票市场的作用在伊朗

摘要:资本市场在任何经济中发挥重要的作用。因此,这项测试是给伊朗的股票市场中的宏观经济变量的影响与作用。因为在任何国家的股票市场是一个最重要的指标,作为有关的变量,在这个市场分析中突出的经济形势是必要的。在伊朗几年前通过批准和执行 44 该国宪法 》,该国的股票市场已更改,绝大多数国有企业已售出。因此,这项工作的结果可用于私营化的原则。在本文中使用的宏观经济变量是: 通货膨胀,交换,在私营部门和工业生产中的流动性的大小。通过方差分析的方法,这项实验的研究其实考虑缓冲区继续对股票市场作为发生在这四个变量之间 2007年至 2011 年的振荡
關鍵字: 交换率、 金融市场、 工业指数、 通货膨胀和股票市场


 
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